China and Norway at the forefront of electro mobility
Author: Mario Schmidtgen
Study by the research institute “Center of Automotive Management”
Electro mobility is turning the car industry upside down. While one sees only a few e-cars on German streets, the traffic in China is almost littered with them. But according to a study by the research institute “Center of Automotive Management” in Bergisch Gladbach, that could change soon. Above all, the Chinese manufacturers could dominate the e-car market in this country in the future.
Within the Top 20 of the best-selling e-models in China, Tesla with its Model X in 19th place is the only foreign manufacturer. In total, about 412,000 electric cars were sold in the People’s Republic in the first half of the year, 111 percent more than in the previous year. The Norwegian market is also at the forefront of the e-car league. Here 35,788 electric cars were sold in the first half of the year; an increase of 32 percent compared to the previous year.
“As the lead market for e-mobility, China is increasingly setting itself apart from other core automotive regions, such as Europe and the USA,” says Stefan Bratzel, study leader. But even here, the registration numbers increased. In the US, the number of newly registered e-vehicles rose by 35 percent to more than 117,000 vehicles.
And even on the German market there was an increase to 33,917 vehicles, 51 percent more compared to the first half of 2017. In a global comparison, the market share of e-cars increased from 1.3 to 1.8 percent. Thereby are pure electric cars much more popular than plug-in hybrids.
Parallel to the increase in electric cars, the number of newly registered diesel vehicles in Germany fell significantly. In June, the diesel market share was only 31.2 percent, so 16.2 percentage points below the previous year’s figure. The number of gasoline engines, however, increased enormously in the same period.
The study also revealed that the German manufacturers are not driving the innovations forward in battery electric mobility. The leaders are the companies Tesla, Renault, Nissan and General Motors. And also the Chinese suppliers BAIC, BYD and Dongfeng are far ahead of the German companies Daimler, VW and BMW.
“Germany is not yet a leading provider of pure electro mobility with its manufacturers” said Bratzel. But the chances are good to catch up by 2020. In the coming years, however, the experts expect only a moderate growth rate of e-mobility. But in 2020 the market dynamic should gain momentum. Then it should come to an enormous growth in Germany and the EU – also caused by the new CO2 limits of the EU.
With its Chinese partners, Volkswagen plans to invest billions of euros in the development of electric cars, autonomous driving and digitalization. The investment should amount to around 15 billion euros according to VW. The money will also finance research of completely new technologies.
China is a real pioneer in this field. By 2025, about 1.5 million vehicles with alternative drive technology will be delivered in China. Furthermore, VW, Audi, Skoda and Seat will bring electric and hybrid cars to the market within the next seven to eight years, in cooperation with the Chinese company JAC.